Is Congress more divided than America is?

By STEVE BRAWNER

Is Congress more polarized than the American people, or does it merely reflect a polarized country? If it’s the former, are there areas were Congress could follow Americans’ lead and accomplish more?

Dr. Steven Kull, director of the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation (PPC) and president of the nonpartisan group Voice of the People, said the answer to both questions is “yes.”

According to Kull, 70% of Americans, including 74% of Democrats, 67% of Republicans and 63% of independents, said the people’s views don’t guide the federal government’s actions as much as they should.

Furthermore, 88% of Democrats, 89% of Republicans, and 83% of independents said Congress would be more likely to find common ground if it took the people’s views into account more often.

Kull and his group selected 121 policies that have shown bipartisan majority agreement in past PPC in-depth surveys where it gave respondents detailed information about a policy. It then conducted a survey earlier this year of 3,709 adults where it presented various policy options without much pro-con explanation.

It found bipartisan majority agreement for 112 of the policies. For 88, more than two-thirds of Republicans and Democrats agreed. 

A few examples that illustrate the consensus (and not necessarily that voters are right).

– 90% of Republicans and 86% of Democrats agreed that the federal government should set maximum prices for prescription drugs based on what other developed countries pay for those drugs. 

– Eighty-seven percent of Democrats and 69% of Republicans agreed that long-term, crime-free illegal immigrants should be eligible for a visa if they paid a penalty and whatever taxes they owed and remained crime free. 

– Asked what percent of the federal budget should go to foreign aid, 87% of Republicans and 97% of Democrats answered with a number that was more than 1%. In fact, the median nationally was 10%. (The actual number typically has been roughly 1% through the years.)

– Eighty-five percent of Republicans and 83% of Democrats favored congressional term limits.

– Eight-five percent of Democrats and 79% of Republicans favored creating a federal agency tasked with monitoring and regulating artificial intelligence. 

“There’s much more common ground among the American people than Congress, and the government does not do what the people would do much of the time,” Kull said in an online webinar where he presented his findings. “That means there are many broadly supported responses to current problems that are lying dormant in Congress. There is a potential here for a real shift if members of Congress were paying more attention to the people.”

Surveys are imperfect instruments. Results depend in large part on how the pollster words the questions. (I thought some of the PPC’s questions were somewhat leading.) They also depend on who agrees to answer, and where their head happens to be as they respond to a series of out-of-the-blue questions. Furthermore, public policies aren’t made in isolation. What sounds like a good idea by itself may be unworkable when the costs and tradeoffs are fully explained.

The reality is, the popular will often does not drive policy. Big-monied special interests often drown out average Americans.

Moreover, it’s not average Americans who decide most elections. One party dominates most states and congressional districts, so what really matters are the dominant party’s primaries. Those tend to attract smaller turnouts with voters who tend to be more partisan and ideological than November-only voters. The general election ballots feature those partisan voters’ choices.

For example, in Arkansas, Sen. Tom Cotton knows he will win in November. He just needs to avoid being challenged by a viable, partisan Republican in a low-turnout primary. Cotton won his party’s nomination this March with 82% of the 281,793 Republican primary voters who cast a ballot. But in reality, he – or an opponent – needed only a majority, which would be 140,897. That’s in a state with 1.8 million registered voters.

Still, Kull said that even primary voters largely agree with their fellow Americans. And New York Times columnist Michelle Cottle, who participated in the webinar, said things tend to be cyclical and public pressure tends to build until Congress acts.

Even with its limitations, the research points to a reality that Americans probably broadly agree on many issues. Listening more closely to that consensus would help lawmakers find – at least some of the time – a pathway forward.

Steve Brawner’s column is syndicated to 24 news outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com.