Abortion proposal moves closer to the ballot

By STEVE BRAWNER

It’s looking more likely, or at least more possible, that voters will be asked this November to make abortion legal in Arkansas.

On Tuesday, Attorney General Tim Griffin certified the ballot language for the proposed Arkansas Abortion Amendment, which is being pushed by the group Arkansans for Limited Government. Griffin is pro-life but said it’s not his job as attorney general to impose his will on the process. 

The amendment would legalize abortion up to 18 weeks after fertilization. It also would legalize it at any point in the pregnancy in cases of rape, incest, a fatal fetal anomaly or in certain situations related to the mother’s life and health. 

Those would be when a doctor believes the abortion is necessary to protect the mother’s life or to protect her from “a life-endangering physical disorder, physical illness, or physical injury,” or when continuing the pregnancy could create a “serious risk of substantial impairment of a major bodily function.”

According to the pro-choice Guttmacher Institute, Arkansas is one of 14 states where abortion has been almost totally banned or is unavailable. This comes after the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in 2022 let states make that decision. Arkansas already had a law on the books, awaiting such a Supreme Court decision, saying abortion would be legal here only when the woman’s life is in danger in a medical emergency.

Griffin’s go-ahead means supporters can begin collecting the 90,704 required verified signatures from registered voters. According to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, the group planned to start doing so at a Sunday rally in Fayetteville.

It seems likely it will collect enough signatures. Pro-choice Arkansans will be motivated to sign. The group will have the money it needs, almost certainly with national financial backing. 

That doesn’t mean the amendment will make the ballot. Proposed citizen-led constitutional amendments attract lawsuits. The Arkansas Supreme Court will be asked to decide if there are problems with the text or with the signature-collection efforts. It tends to find such problems. 

If supporters collect enough signatures, which they will, and if they survive the legal challenges, which they might, then voters will decide. 

Going into the election, the cards would seem to be stacked against the amendment. In last year’s well-regarded Arkansas Poll administered by the University of Arkansas’ Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society, only 38% of respondents supported making abortion access easier. Another 25% would make no change, while 29% would make it harder. Added together, 54% of respondents would not make it easier to get an abortion, which doesn’t include any of the 8% who said they didn’t know or refused to answer. 

Furthermore, the amendment would attract powerful and outspoken opposition. Most of the state’s Republican political establishment, including Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, would be against it. So would be Arkansas Right to Life and many church leaders. 

The influential and effective Family Council would oppose the amendment and deploy its grassroots forces against it. Its leader, Jerry Cox, said in a press release that as many as 3,000 abortions annually could occur in Arkansas based on the number that occurred before the Dobbs decision.

On the other hand, support for easier abortion access has increased in the Arkansas poll – from 33% in 2022 to 38% in 2023. In 2021, when abortion was legal here, 18% favored making it easier. 

Arkansas voters also sometimes have shown themselves to be not as conservative as their legislators. In recent years, they’ve twice approved minimum wage increases, have legalized medical marijuana, and have legalized casino gambling. 

There’s also the fact that pro-choice supporters have won victories at the ballot box in other states. In Kansas in the 2022 primary election, 59% voted against a constitutional amendment that would have said there was no right to an abortion there. Kansas is a red state but not as red as Arkansas. It has a Democratic governor.

One thing to watch would be how an abortion amendment would affect turnout – and therefore other races. Almost 943,000 Kansans voted in the primary election in 2022 when abortion was on the ballot. In comparison, 636,000 had voted in the primary election two years earlier.

A number of other citizen-led ballot measures could be facing voters in November. The abortion amendment would be the biggest, by far. The only thing that would attract more attention would be the presidential race, and I’m not sure it would.

We’ll see. Again, it hasn’t made the ballot. 

Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist published in 15 outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.