The blue wave splashes Arkansas

By STEVE BRAWNER | Special to arkadelphian.com

The so-called “blue wave” didn’t engulf Arkansas Tuesday like it did much of the nation. But it did splash here, particularly along the state’s northwestern shore.

The statewide and federal Republican candidates all won as expected, but Democratic state House candidates surprisingly increased their numbers by 10 to 30. That amount is four more than the 26 they needed to break the Republican supermajority.

Nationally, Democrats now hold clear majorities in Congress after gaining at least seven seats in the Senate and 39 in the House as of Thursday, CNN was projecting.

Arkansas Republicans largely bucked the trend, although with smaller margins than in the past. Sen. Tom Cotton and three of the state’s four House members all won comfortably.

The exception was Rep. French Hill. He eked out a win over Democrat Chris Jones in the 2nd Congressional District by about 4,400 votes.

Hill has always had Republicans’ most difficult district because it contains Little Rock, home to many Democrats. He has vanquished several strong challengers in the past. 

But this time, Hill almost got caught up in the wave – and likely would have had state legislators not redrawn his district to make it more Republican following the 2020 census. 

While Arkansas’ congressional delegation remains intact, its power has been diminished. All six members will lose their valuable committee chairmanships: Sen. John Boozman of the Agriculture Committee; Cotton and Rep. Rick Crawford of their chambers’ Intelligence Committees; Hill of the Financial Services Committee; Rep. Steve Womack of the Transportation, Housing and Urban Development Subcommittee; and Rep. Bruce Westerman of the Natural Resources Committee.

At the state level, Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders easily was re-elected with 54% of the vote. That’s a clear majority, but it’s well below the 63% with which she won four years ago. 

She will remain Arkansas’ dominant state elected official, but she will enter her second term with less power than she entered her first, as is generally true for governors. 

The election’s most surprising result was the Democrats’ pickup of what appears to be 10 seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives. That includes six races where a Democratic challenger defeated a Republican incumbent. One of those was House District 32 in the Jonesboro area, where Democrat Erika Askeland narrowly defeated Rep. Jack Ladyman. Democrats also picked up a Senate seat to reach seven. 

The results were a surprise even to Democratic Party of Arkansas Chairman Marcus Jones. He said in a press conference Thursday that the party had thought it could pick up six seats based on data and what it was hearing on the ground.

Five of the Democrats’ pickups came in northwest Arkansas’ Benton and Washington Counties. Those large and wealthy counties are home to many Walmart-related transplants from other states as well as University of Arkansas educators and a large Hispanic population – three groups that tend to vote Democratic at greater rates than Arkansas’ general populace. 

Democrats will occupy 30 of the 100 seats in the state House – 10 more than they did. They needed 26 to block most spending bills, which require a three-fourths majority. If they hold together and vote as a bloc, they can force Sanders and the Republican leadership to negotiate in many areas.

Those would include changes to the state’s Medicaid expansion program, additional prison space, and – possibly – the education freedom accounts that provide public dollars to families to use for private and homeschooling expenses. 

It’s unclear on that last one. While most appropriations require a three-fourths vote, the Constitution makes an exception for appropriations “for the common schools.” Does that include the education freedom accounts? It could come down to a court case, if someone decides to make it one. House Minority Leader Andrew Collins, D-Little Rock, said Democrats are mulling their approach to next year’s legislative session.

Regardless of which “team” voters support, this November was encouraging because it showed that Arkansas’ elections can still be surprising. For most of the state’s history, Democrats automatically won in November – if they even had an opponent. For the past decade-plus, candidates with an “R” beside their name have been assured of winning in most places.

Democracies grow stale that way. Ruling parties can be corrupted. Elections can get boring. 

This one wasn’t, and that’s a good thing. And for those on either side who didn’t like this election’s results, there’s one other encouraging reality: We’ll have another one in two years. 

We’ll see what color the wave is then, if there is one.

Steve Brawner’s column is syndicated to 24 news outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com.