Poll: Cotton behind, Sanders not far ahead

By STEVE BRAWNER

Sen. Tom Cotton and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders are definitely still the favorites to win in November. But the election just got more interesting.

A Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll released over the course of this week found that Cotton, a Republican, was trailing Democrat Hallie Shoffner, 47.4% to 44%. Libertarian Jeff Wadlin was running at 3%, while 5.65% of respondents were undecided. 

The poll also found that in the governor’s race, Sanders was leading Democrat state Sen. Fred Love, 45% to 40%, while Libertarian Colt Shelby trailed with 7%. Another 8% were undecided. 

The poll of 1,217 likely voters was conducted Aug. 11-12 via text message and had a plus-minus margin of error of 4.7%. That’s a 9.4% swing, which means Cotton could be leading his race while Love could be ahead of Sanders. 

The impossible-to-ignore finding was that more respondents disapproved of President Trump than approved, 53%-46%. Perhaps even more significant was the fact that almost half the respondents (48.3%) strongly disapproved. Less than 5% only somewhat disapproved. In contrast, one-third (32.2%) strongly approved. 

Those numbers are affecting Cotton’s and Sanders’. The late U.S. Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill said that “All politics is local.” The opposite is now true. All politics, or much of it, is now national. 

Before continuing, I should tell you that Talk Business & Politics is one of my freelance writing clients. TB&P’s founder, Roby Brock, also owns newspapers that publish this column. 

Back to the poll, where some other results stood out. First, both Cotton and Sanders were well below 50%, which is traditionally the threshold where an incumbent can feel comfortable.

Also, both Shoffner and Love crossed the 40% threshold, which statewide Democrats have not been crossing in elections since the state flipped from Democrat to Republican in the 2010s. Shoffner blew past it. Trump’s 48.3% “strongly disapprove” rating surely must be a big reason for those results. 

Digging deeper into the numbers, Shoffner had a huge lead among independents, 59% to 29%. Cotton, on the other hand, had a 22-point lead among seniors ages 65 and older – the age group that is most likely to vote.

Republican Party of Arkansas Executive Director Drew Martin released a statement saying the TB&P-Hendrix poll has often overestimated Democratic Party strength in the past. For example, in 2020 the poll showed Trump leading President Biden by only 47% to 45%, but Trump won the state in November, 62% to 35%.

Brock defended the poll on the RPA’s Facebook page by saying that a poll is a snapshot in time well before the election, and that polls provide valuable insights. He noted that his poll showed independents are supporting Republicans less than they have in the past. Also, he said Sanders is performing better with women than Republicans typically do. 

The Republicans in these races have huge fundraising advantages. Cotton ended June with almost $10 million in the bank, while Shoffner had $864,000. If poll results like this continue, she’ll raise more than she has, but she’ll never catch him. Sanders had more than a $5 million campaign balance according to her latest report, while Love was more than $6,000 in the hole.

With those advantages, Sanders, Cotton and their allies will chip away at their opponents’ support. They’ll be able to use the national Democrats’ brand against Shoffner and Love, although I would be surprised to see Sanders go full-press negative against Love. I don’t think the race is that close. I expect some of the independents and many of the undecideds will shift to the Republican side as the election nears and the barrage of campaign ads run. Finally, some of the Libertarian support may fall off as voters make the typical either-or choice between Republicans and Democrats. 

If I were a betting man, and I’m not, I would still bet on Cotton and Sanders. In fact, you can actually do that in an online prediction market. One – I’m not giving it free advertising – gives Cotton a 92% chance of winning and Sanders a 97%. There’s been some talk lately that prediction markets forecast election results better than polls do. People don’t always answer polls truthfully, but they don’t mess around with their money.

Regardless, this election will be closer than the past several. Politics is now national, and the 48.3% of voters who strongly disapprove of Trump – like the 32.2% who strongly approve of him – probably won’t change their minds.

Steve Brawner’s column is syndicated to 24 news outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com.