Elections start in less than seven weeks

By STEVE BRAWNER

The next election starts in less than seven weeks, so … here we go again!

Early voting in the party primaries starts Feb. 16, with the final day of voting – we don’t really have an “Election Day” anymore – set for March 3. 

The primary elections really are the ones that matter most. Republicans will easily win the general elections in November in much of Arkansas except in the remaining areas where Democrats will win. What really matters is who wins the primary.

The primaries’ importance has become one of the defining features of the American election system. 

And the thing is, a relatively small percentage of people vote in them. In the last midterm elections in 2022, only 26% of Arkansas’ registered voters – 457,856 – voted, according to the secretary of state’s website. In other words, 15% of the population effectively picked many of the state’s elected officials.  

Another thing about primaries is that they are an imperfect representation of the state. Across the country, primary voters tend to be more partisan than their non-participating fellow citizens. They also tend to be more conservative as Republicans or liberal as Democrats than the general population. 

That means the larger population that participates in the November general election – it was a 51% registered voter turnout in 2022 – often is choosing between those more partisan, more ideological candidates picked by the primary voters.

Presidential elections attract more attention. But, in Arkansas, the midterms are the most important from a state perspective. That’s when voters elect state officials.

Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders does not have a primary opponent. In November, she will face the winner of the Democratic primary contest between state Sen. Fred Love, D-Mablevale, and Supha Xayprasith-Mays, as well as the yet-to-be-nominated Libertarian candidate. 

Probably the most interesting statewide primary race will be for secretary of state, the position in charge of elections and of maintaining the State Capitol. Three Republicans seek the office: Sen. Kim Hammer, R-Benton; Judge Cathy Hardin Harrison; and Bryan Norris. They will face Democrat Kelly Grappe in November.

Two other statewide races will be contested. Two Republicans, Secretary of State Cole Jester and Christian Olson, seek the office of land commissioner. Two candidates are vying for Arkansas Supreme Court Position 3: current Justice Nick Bronni and John Adams. The positions are nonpartisan, but the state Republican Party has endorsed Bronni, a Sanders appointee.

Lt. Governor Leslie Rutledge, Attorney General Tim Griffin, Auditor Dennis Milligan and Treasurer John Thurston don’t have opponents. Neither does Supreme Court Justice Cody Hiland. 

Meanwhile, seven of the 17 state Senate seats feature contested primaries this year, as reported by Talk Business & Politics. 

Three of those feature challenges of a sitting state senator. Those include Senate District 10, where Sen. Ronald Caldwell, R-Wynne, faces challenger Trey Bohannan. In Senate District 21, Sen. Blake Johnson, R-Corning, is being challenged by Rep. Jeremy Wooldridge, R-Marmaduke. 

And in Senate District 28, Sen. Bryan King, R-Green Forest, faces Bobby Ballinger, the son of former Sen. Bob Ballinger, whom King defeated in 2022. King has been an outspoken opponent of Gov. Sanders’ proposed 3,000-bed prison in Franklin County and has sometimes clashed with his party’s legislative leadership on other issues. 

Another election to watch has already started – the special election for Senate District 26, where the prison would be located. That seat was left vacant by the death of Sen. Gary Stubblefield, R-Branch. The Republican primary began Dec. 30 and ends Jan. 6.

Five Republicans are seeking to finish Stubblefield’s term. They are former Rep. Mark Berry, R-Ozark; Brad Simon, Ted Tritt, Stacie Smith and Wade Dunn. All oppose the prison, as Stubblefield did. The winner faces independent Adam Watson, another prison opponent, in the special election March 3.

Sanders did not endorse anyone, and given the passions surrounding that prison, probably no one would want that endorsement. In fact, Berry recently told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that an endorsement would be “the kiss of death.”

Only 21 of the 100 House races feature a contested primary. Of those, 13 involve an open seat. Six involve races where an incumbent Republican representative faces a challenge by a member of his own party. 

Notably, this will be the first election when all of the state’s school board elections will occur in the primary election. That change is the result of legislation passed in 2025. 

Of course, Arkansans can’t vote if they aren’t registered. The deadline to register to vote in the primary elections is Feb. 2. 

That’s Groundhog Day, by the way. For those who’ve seen the movie, here we go again!

Steve Brawner’s column is syndicated to 20 outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com.