A Congressional math problem: $4.1 trillion minus $9 billion

By STEVE BRAWNER

The math for Congress’ recent activities works out like this: $4.1 trillion minus $9 billion. 

All six members of Arkansas’ congressional delegation voted for both numbers. 

The $4.1 trillion is the amount the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) adds to federal budget deficits through 2034, according to projections by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. OBBBA is President Trump’s recently passed tax cut bill that also included spending cuts. 

CRFB based that number on the Congressional Budget Office’s projection that OBBBA will add $3.4 trillion to the primary deficit, which doesn’t include interest costs. CRFB projects the additional interest will bump that total to $4.1 trillion. The CBO also projects the bill will increase the number of Americans without health insurance by 10 million. This would occur because of Medicaid cuts and work requirements along with other provisions. 

These are projections, not prophecies. Perhaps the tax cuts will spur economic growth that will reduce the deficits somewhat. On the other hand, things could get worse. CRFB believes the law will increase interest rates. Also, while the tax cuts take effect immediately, some spending cuts take effect later. Much can happen between now and then. 

One effect of OBBBA was that it raised the debt ceiling – the legal limit the government can borrow – by $5 trillion. This was necessary. The government must pay its bills like the rest of us, even if it has to borrow. 

Trump signed the bill July 4. The next business day, July 7, the national debt increased from $36.2 trillion to $36.58 trillion, a difference of $366.4 billion. It basically increased by $1,000 for every American over that weekend. It jumped another $71.6 billion by July 19.

Over 30 years, CRFB projects that OBBA will add $19 trillion to the debt as written and $32 trillion if its provisions become permanent. The projections do not include the economic growth that occurs from cutting taxes, or the economic challenges that can occur with higher interest rates. 

Following OBBA’s passage, Congress passed the Rescission Act of 2025, which will claw back $9 billion that had been appropriated but not yet spent. Again, all six members of Arkansas’ congressional delegation voted yes.

Most of that money – $7.9 billion – comes from cutting foreign aid programs. The Trump administration had already closed the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and moved remaining operations into the Department of State. It says these foreign aid programs are too wasteful and often not aligned with American interests or values. The changes ended or reduced U.S. support for many international aid efforts serving the world’s poorest people. One study published in The Lancet medical journal found USAID programs had saved more than 90 million lives over 21 years.

The Senate restored $400 million in spending that the House initially had cut for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR. The House went along with the amendment. President George W. Bush started the program in 2003. The State Department’s website says it has saved 26 million lives. 

The rescission package also cut $1.1 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Of that, about $3.2 million was marked for Arkansas, as reported by Arkansas Advocate. The cuts will mean a loss of $2.5 million for Arkansas PBS, or 15% of its annual budget. 

In addition to public television, the CPB also provides funding for Arkansas’ National Public Radio stations. That includes 10% of Little Rock Public Radio’s budget, 20% of KASU’s budget in Jonesboro, and 16% of KUAF’s budget in Fayetteville.

OBBBA and the Rescission Act passed by razor-thin margins in a Congress where the House is split almost 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats. The Senate split is 53-47, but a few of the senators don’t always hew to the party line. CNN reported that Vice President J.D. Vance has cast the tie-breaking vote five times this month. Two of those were required to advance the rescission bill. 

Now Congress must fund the government for next year by September 30 to avoid the possibility of a government shutdown. U.S. Rep, Steve Womack, who represents Arkansas’ 3rd District, told Talk Business & Politics that “there is probably as good a chance right now at a potential shutdown as I have seen in recent memory” due to divisions within his party and the unlikelihood of support from Democrats. 

To sum it up, the two bills passed by Congress increased deficits by $4.1 trillion minus $9 billion. 

I’m not great at math, but that’s still $4.1 trillion.

Steve Brawner’s column is syndicated to 20 outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com.