By STEVE BRAWNER
Could Arkansans vote for a split-party “unity” ticket in next year’s presidential election? They may have that chance.
No Labels says such a ticket – one Republican, one Democrat – can not only be competitive in a three-way race against President Biden and former President Trump, but it can actually win.
In an online question and answer session with reporters Dec. 20, Chief Strategist Ryan Clancy said that in a poll of 12,000 voters, respondents were evenly split with 34% saying they would support a unity ticket. Another 33.3% said they would support Biden, and 32.7% said they would support Trump.
The ticket would be created next year via some kind of convention after Arkansas and other states vote in the “Super Tuesday” primary March 5.
By then, it should be clearer whether we’re looking at a Biden-Trump rematch, which is why No Labels is engaged in this effort. If those are the two candidates, then No Labels wants to be prepared with an alternative.
In years past, No Labels has been a good-government group that has tried to get Republicans and Democrats in Congress to work together through a “Problem Solvers Caucus.” It has not been very successful. Faced with the prospect of that Biden-Trump rematch, it’s decided to play a little more hardball. It plans to get on every state ballot. It’s now qualified everywhere it’s been possible to do so, including in Arkansas.
No Labels’ data-driven models show that even though the three candidates would split the popular vote almost evenly, a unity ticket could carry 25 states and win 286 Electoral College votes, which is 16 more than needed.
These are rough numbers based on models, and some might say rosy scenarios. No Labels says Florida and Illinois are unity states. Both seem unlikely. No Labels considers Arkansas to be a “stretch” state, meaning its six Electoral College votes conceivably could go to the unity ticket. Trump won easily here in 2016 and 2020.
The other problem with the model is that No Labels is offering an unknown “unity” candidate against two known candidates with high disapproval ratings. Once names and faces become attached to the ticket, Biden and Trump will be able to attack them.
Clancy acknowledges all of this but notes that states that seem solidly red or blue are so in the context of a binary choice – Republican versus Democrat. What if there were another credible one? Moreover, No Labels has said voters who would consider supporting or would definitely support a unity ticket has grown from 64.5 million in February 2022 to 77.1 million in January 2023 to 83.25 million in November.
The effort has come under attack from some Democrats who fear a unity ticket would split anti-Trump votes with Biden. Also, if it prevents any candidate from winning a majority of Electoral College votes, then the election would be decided by the House of Representatives, with each state delegation getting one vote. The Senate would elect the vice president.
At the moment, Republicans have majorities in 26 states – one more than needed – but Clancy points out the election in that circumstance would be decided by the next Congress. Before that happens, Electoral College electors could produce a winner via negotiations.
The case that a unity ticket would help elect Trump is getting weaker with each poll result showing Biden would lose regardless. Trump is leading in national polls. In a NewYork Times poll in November, he was winning in five swing states that would help determine the election: Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada. Biden’s approval rating is hovering around 40%. That’s low.
Meanwhile, Trump is not exactly beloved by a majority of Americans either. According to No Labels’ model, the number of Americans who support him and his policies has fallen by almost 8 million to 30.8 million from January to November, while those supporting his policies but not him personally has fallen almost 18 million to 41.1 million. Almost twice as many Americans, 139.3 million, view both him and his policies unfavorably. That number grew by 28.7 million from January to November.
A lot can change between now and next November, but at the moment, Trump is dominating the Republican primaries while the Democratic primary is stacked in Biden’s favor.
If those are the two choices, will Americans consider a unity ticket? In Arkansas, there’s now a place on the ballot for one, and there’s a label. All that’s missing are the names.
Steve Brawner is a syndicated columnist published in 15 outlets in Arkansas. Email him at brawnersteve@mac.com. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebrawner.